The processing and manufacturing industry has been a bright spot in the economy, achieving the highest growth rate in the third quarter over the past six years.
A newly released report from the General Statistics Office indicates that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2024 is estimated to have increased by 7.4% compared to the same period last year. In this, the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sector increased by 2.58%, slightly higher than the growth rate of the same period in 2021 during the 2020-2024 period, contributing 4.08% to the total value-added growth of the entire economy. The industry and construction sector grew by 9.11%, contributing 48.88%, with the processing and manufacturing industry being a highlight of the economy with a growth rate of 11.41%, the highest increase over the same period in the past six years.
Overall, GDP growth for the first nine months of 2024 is estimated to have increased by 6.82% compared to the same period last year. According to the General Statistics Office, the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sector was severely affected by Storm No. 3 in September 2024, resulting in lower growth compared to the same period in previous years. The value-added growth of the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sector in the first nine months of 2024 increased by 3.2%, only higher than the growth rate of the same period in 2020 during the 2020-2024 period.
Meanwhile, the industry and construction sector witnessed production increases in several key industries compared to the same period last year. The total value-added growth of the industrial sector in the first nine months of 2024 increased by 8.34% compared to the same period last year.
The trade, tourism, and transportation sectors maintained their growth momentum, making positive contributions to the overall economic growth. The value-added growth of the service sector in the first nine months of 2024 increased by 6.95% compared to the same period last year.
Additionally, business activity continued to show signs of improvement. Over the first nine months, more than 183,000 new businesses were registered and resumed operations, an increase of 9.7% compared to the same period in 2023. On average, over 20,300 new businesses were established or resumed operations each month. In contrast, 163,800 businesses exited the market, an increase of 21.5% compared to the same period last year. On average, 18,200 businesses withdrew from the market each month.
According to the General Statistics Office, “The results of the business trend survey of manufacturing enterprises for the fourth quarter of 2024 show that 42.2% of enterprises assess that the outlook will improve compared to the third quarter of 2024; 40.4% of enterprises believe that the business situation will remain stable, while only 17.4% forecast a more challenging outlook.”
The total retail sales of goods and revenue from consumer services continued to grow, proving that the purchasing power of the economy continued to recover. Over the first nine months of 2024, the total retail sales of goods and revenue from consumer services at current prices is estimated to have reached VND 4,703 trillion, an increase of 8.8% compared to the same period last year.
Preliminary trade balance surplus of USD 20.79 billion in the first nine months
In terms of exports and imports, in the first nine months of 2024, the export turnover of goods reached USD 299.63 billion, an increase of 15.4% compared to the same period last year. The import turnover of goods reached USD 278.84 billion, an increase of 17.3% compared to the same period last year. The preliminary trade balance surplus was USD 20.79 billion (compared to a surplus of USD 22.1 billion in the same period last year).
For foreign direct investment (FDI), the total registered FDI in Vietnam as of September 30, including newly registered capital, adjusted registered capital, and capital contributions, reached USD 24.78 billion, an increase of 11.6% compared to the same period last year. The realized FDI capital in Vietnam is estimated at USD 17.34 billion, an increase of 8.9% compared to the same period last year.
In early July 2024, the Ministry of Planning and Investment proposed two economic growth scenarios for 2024:
Scenario 1: Annual growth of 6.5% (upper limit of the target set by the National Assembly), with Q3 growth of 6.5% and Q4 growth of 6.6% (compared to the scenario in Resolution No. 01 of 6.7% and 7.0%).
Scenario 2: Annual growth of 7%, with Q3 growth of 7.4% and Q4 growth of 7.6%, higher than the scenario in Resolution No. 01 by 0.7% and 0.6%.
The Ministry of Planning and Investment recommends choosing an annual growth scenario of 6.5-7%, striving to achieve the high-end target of 7% based on six key factors.