After a period of lacking new supporting information, in the second half of October, the stock market will have information from domestic and international macro events.
The most notable of these is the third quarter 2024 business results reporting season.
Expecting a “boost” in third quarter business results
Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh, head of macro and market strategy department, VNDirect Securities Joint Stock Company (VNDirect), said that the third quarter business results reporting season is about to begin, which will partly answer investors’ recent concerns about the impact of super typhoon Yagi ( typhoon No. 3 ) on the production and business situation of enterprises.
VNDirect expects overall market profits in the third quarter to remain positive, driven by the economic growth momentum in the last quarter and the low base level of the same period last year.
If the market profit picture is as positive as expected, it will be a strong “boost” for investors and stock market trends from now until the end of 2024.
In terms of profit prospects, listed companies on SSI Securities Corporation’s (SSI) watchlist are forecast to grow 15.5% in 2024 and continue to grow 19.6% in 2025.
Profit growth will continue to expand across multiple sectors. Profit growth over the same period could reach 21.7% in the second half of 2024, accelerating significantly from just 6.2% in the first half of the year.
MB Securities Joint Stock Company (MBS) even forecasts that in the third quarter of 2024, the total market profit could reach a growth rate of 19.5% compared to the same period last year.
In addition to the story of business results, according to VNDirect, the market also paid attention to new developments in the US economy as well as the policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in early November.
Currently, the market still believes that the Fed will continue to cut the operating interest rate by 0.25% at the upcoming meeting. Moreover, the US presidential election in November will also have certain impacts on the global financial market.
As investors wait and watch for important developments, slow and cautious market trading may continue next week.
It is likely that the VN-Index may continue to fluctuate within a narrow range of 1,260-1,300 points, VNDirect said.
Mr. Pham Binh Phuong, an expert from Mirae Asset Securities Joint Stock Company (Vietnam), said that in the past 2 weeks, the VN-Index has generally been fluctuating around the 1,270 – 1,295 point range, but the way it fluctuates is difficult to predict with a series of 4 consecutive declines in the week from September 30 to October 4 and a series of 4 consecutive increases in the past week (from October 7 to 11).
Looking at individual stocks, groups expected to have positive results such as technology (FPT), logistics (VTP, ACV) … are creating new highs in the last 2 weeks. Investors need to pay more attention to the individual stories of businesses when the season of announcing third-quarter business results is coming, Mr. Phuong recommended.
Regarding stock market developments, at the end of the trading week from October 7 to 11, VN-Index increased by 17.79 points to 1,288.39 points; HNX-Index closed the week at 231.37 points, down 1.3 points compared to the previous trading week.
Liquidity on the two exchanges this week decreased compared to the previous trading week. Specifically, the matched volume decreased by 26.23% on HOSE and decreased by 28.05% on HNX.
The most active industry group contributing to the market’s increase this week was Vingroup stocks, with VHM up 5.06%, VIC up 1.95%, VRE up 3.83%…
In addition to the Vingroup group, some other stock groups also had impressive developments such as the information technology group, typically with CMG increasing by 5.58%, FPT increasing by 4.10%, ELC increasing by 2.86%…
Food and beverage group traded impressively with MSN up 7.28%, PAN up 5.63%, SAB up 1.59%, KDC up 0.79%…
Banking stocks improved with LPB up 4.29%, VPB up 3.50%, ACB up 2.76%, CTG up 1.83%, TCB up 1.66%…
On the other hand, retail stocks decreased in price, such as MWG down 2.86%, DGW down 76%. The automobile and spare parts industry group traded in red with SVC down 4.42%, TMT down 3.38%, HAX down 0.91%…
Most electricity stocks had a negative trading week, specifically POW down 2.7%, KHP down 1.42%, REE down 1.06%…
According to experts from Saigon – Hanoi Securities Joint Stock Company (SHS), the World Trade Organization (WTO)’s Global Trade Outlook and Statistics update released on October 10 showed that global merchandise trade has been on an upward trend in the first half of 2024, with an annual increase of 2.3%.
This growth is expected to continue to expand moderately through the rest of the year and into 2025. Global merchandise trade volume is expected to increase by 2.7% this year, higher than the WTO’s previous forecast of 2.6% in April, indicating that the global economy remains stable in the short term despite the complicated developments of the Russia-Ukraine and Middle East conflicts.
SHS said that in the short term, GDP growth in the third quarter of 2024 is estimated at 7.4%, and GDP growth in the first 9 months of 2024 is 6.82%. This is a growth rate exceeding expectations.
Assuming a GDP growth rate of about 6.8% for the whole year of 2024, the estimated GDP in 2024 will be about 460 billion USD. Thus, the current total market capitalization is equivalent to 64% of GDP in 2024.
Vietnam Construction Securities Joint Stock Company (CSI) said that VN-Index had its fourth consecutive session of increase, but the increase was quite weak and liquidity decreased sharply. The matched volume on HOSE in today’s session decreased by 29.3% compared to the average of 20 sessions, showing that the index’s increase lacked support momentum, so the recovery trend has not been confirmed.
“We still maintain our expectation that the VN-Index will surpass the psychological threshold of 1,300 points and move towards the resistance level (1,320 – 1,330 points). However, with the current developments, the market will probably need more time to accumulate momentum,” CSI commented.
In fact, the Vietnamese stock market traded cautiously in the context of strong fluctuations in the world stock market last week.
US stocks hit record high
On the US stock market, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indexes closed at record highs on October 11, thanks to a strong push from financial stocks after banks reported strong quarterly profit results.
Notably, market sentiment was also affected as the latest inflation data increased the possibility of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates in November.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 409.74 points to 42,863.86, the S&P 500 gained 34.98 points to 5,815.03 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 60.89 points to 18,342.94.
For the week, the S&P 500 rose 1.1%; the Dow Jones rose 1.2%; and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.1%. This was the fifth consecutive week that all three indexes rose.
In Asia, Chinese stocks fell sharply on October 11, ending a volatile trading week, as traders hoped authorities would introduce new stimulus measures, adding to a series of measures announced last month.
In China, the Shanghai Composite Index closed down 2.55% at 3,217.74 points. The Hong Kong market was closed for a holiday.
Traders in the market were concerned last week by the lack of details on the economic stimulus measures recently announced at a press conference on October 8 by the chairman of the Economic Development and Reform Commission of China.
Shanghai and Hong Kong markets have been volatile in recent days, rising more than 20% after pledges to support the economy were announced last month, with a focus on the property sector.
China is under pressure to announce a fresh round of stimulus measures as data shows the world’s second-largest economy is still struggling after COVID-19 restrictions are lifted in late 2022.