The recovery of the macro economy, and the early completion of budget revenue collection in some localities, is the clearest evidence that fiscal, monetary and other macroeconomic support policies have come into effect. According to economic experts, the end of the year promises to grow beyond expectations.

Some localities reach budget revenue target

Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City have so far contributed over 51% of the total national budget revenue. Of which, Hanoi contributed 25.93%, Ho Chi Minh City contributed 25.45%. According to statistics, in the first 9 months of 2024, Hanoi continued to lead the country in state budget revenue (NSNN) in the area with a total of 376,430 billion VND, reaching 92.1% of the estimate, up 22.2% over the same period. As for Ho Chi Minh City, in the first 9 months of 2024, it is estimated to have achieved 371,307 billion VND, reaching 76.9% of the estimate and up 14.3% over the same period. In Hai Phong City, the total budget revenue currently reaches over 82% of the estimate assigned by the City People’s Council. Khanh Hoa, the province’s domestic revenue reached 92.2% of the ordinance estimate and increased 36.7% over the same period last year.

Some localities have reached the “finish line” in state budget revenue 3 months early, such as: Da Nang, which has collected 100.7% of the 2024 estimate; Nghe An’s state budget revenue reached 109% of the estimate, an increase of 46% over the same period. Can Tho is close to reaching the finish line when its budget revenue reached 98% of the estimate.

According to statistics from the Ministry of Finance, in the first 9 months, total state budget revenue has reached over 85%, almost reaching the estimate assigned by the National Assembly. Direct revenues from the 3 production and business sectors (accounting for 50.9% of the total domestic revenue estimate) are estimated to reach 80.6% of the estimate, up 10.9% over the same period.

In some large localities, revenue from economic sectors increased, contributing to increased domestic revenue. For example, in Ho Chi Minh City, revenue from economic sectors increased significantly, contributing to a 22.2% increase in domestic revenue. Notably, a 1.2% increase in revenue from import and export was recorded. With the significant contribution of the business community, Hanoi’s budget revenue increased by 24.7% over the same period, estimated at 337.2 trillion VND, reaching 82.5% of the annual ordinance estimate. In Hai Phong City, revenue from import and export activities reached nearly 48,900 billion VND, an increase of over 14% over the same period in 2023.

The above results were achieved thanks to the Government continuing to apply policies in 2024 to reduce, defer and extend tax payments for a number of taxes such as: Value Added Tax, Corporate Income Tax, Personal Income Tax, Land Rent, Environmental Protection Tax and Registration Fee for domestically produced and assembled cars… to support and accompany taxpayers during the economic recovery period after the Covid-19 pandemic.

Vietnam returns to be ASEAN’s growth “star”

Remember in early July 2024, at the Workshop “Vietnam’s Economy in the First 6 Months and Prospects for the Whole Year 2024: New Driving Force for Quality Growth”, the Central Institute for Economic Management released two macroeconomic forecasts for 2024, equivalent to forecasted GDP growth of 6.55% and 6.95%.

Meanwhile, in mid-July 2024, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office revised Vietnam’s economic growth forecast for 2024 to 6.3%, the highest in ASEAN (higher than the previous forecast). From the World Bank’s perspective in a review report published at the end of August 2024, it is forecasted that Vietnam’s economy could grow by 6.1% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025 and 2026.

Most recently, according to the HSBC Global Research Report released on October 11, Vietnam has returned to being the growth “star” of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Growth in the third quarter of 2024 reached 7.4% compared to the same period last year, higher than HSBC’s forecast. This is the basis for HSBC Bank to raise its forecast for Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2024 to 7%, instead of 6.5% as before.

According to financial economist Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu, this result shows that the Government’s great efforts and determination have paid off, because clearly the parameters of storm Yagi have been taken into account on the path to conquering the GDP growth target in 2024. The recent storm has caused great damage to the northern provinces, affecting road and bridge infrastructure, production and business establishments, seriously affecting rice and crop areas… To help the northern provinces recover, it will take a lot of budget and resources and its impacts will be delayed until the last months of the year.

Regarding the growth drivers in the coming months, Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu and many economic experts agree that public investment is still one of the key factors supporting economic growth. In addition to reinvesting in infrastructure damaged by Typhoon Yagi, public investment should be directed towards important projects and works with widespread impact, laying the foundation for economic development in 2025 and the following years.

Another urgent task is to support the full recovery of the private economic sector, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, through continuing to strongly reform administrative procedures, reducing costs for businesses, increasing access to credit with reasonable interest rates, etc. These are also the key tasks that the Government and the Prime Minister have been and are resolutely directing. “The economic outlook in 2025 may be brighter than in 2024,” said Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu.

HSBC raises 2024 GDP growth forecast to 7%According to the HSBC Global Research Report, Vietnam has returned to being the growth “star” of ASEAN. Growth in the third quarter of 2024 reached 7.4% compared to the same period last year, higher than HSBC’s forecast. This is the basis for HSBC Bank to raise its forecast for Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2024 to 7%, instead of 6.5% as before.