In 2024, Vietnam’s import and export are expected to increase sharply, surpassing the 800 billion USD mark for the first time. The outstanding efforts of enterprises along with the active support and companionship from the Government, ministries and branches are important factors helping to bring about “sweet fruit” this year.
In the general picture of import and export, the brightest spot is the textile industry, which has made efforts to “green” its products.
Agricultural products, textiles… shine
Mr. Nguyen Xuan Duong, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Hung Yen Garment Corporation , shared that recently, Hung Yen Garment has promptly changed its production method.
“Previously, we produced according to the common trend of the US and Europe, which is fast fashion, making a lot but selling excess and burying or burning it. Currently, buyers do not order as much as before, but gradually switch to modern fashion in the direction of extending the life of the product. Accordingly, we aim to produce less but durable and strong goods. That is also one of the orientations that meets the green and circular criteria,” said Mr. Duong.
As the last months of the year approach, in an interview with Thanh Nien , Chairman of the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association (Vitas) Vu Duc Giang could not hide his excitement when talking about exports. Since the end of August, Mr. Giang has firmly affirmed that “textile and garment exports for the whole year will reach the target of 44 billion USD”. According to information published by Vitas in mid-November, this year, the entire textile and garment industry is forecast to have a trade surplus of 19 billion USD, an increase of 6.93% compared to last year.
In contrast to the difficulties that arose in 2023, this year, textile and garment orders are relatively abundant. Since mid-year, many enterprises have been fully booked with export orders for the whole year, and are even negotiating for export orders for 2025. “Currently, most enterprises in the textile and garment industry have orders for the first quarter of 2025 and are negotiating orders for the second quarter of 2025,” said Mr. Giang.
Throughout 2024, Vietnam’s import and export will basically improve compared to 2023. Looking back at the overall export “picture”, Mr. Nguyen Quoc Viet, Deputy Director of the Institute for Economic and Policy Research ( Hanoi National University ), pointed out “very encouraging” points, in which items that seemed to have lost competitiveness such as textiles and footwear have returned to the club of export items reaching 10 billion USD. In addition, Vietnam has maintained its position, increased the export value in the agricultural sector, thereby contributing to the overall export success.
Economist Le Quoc Phuong, former Deputy Director of the Center for Industry and Trade Information (Ministry of Industry and Trade), also acknowledged that the special point in this year’s export of goods is the strong growth of agricultural products. Mr. Phuong repeatedly said that this is a “good sign” because agricultural products are the main export item of Vietnamese enterprises.
“The prices of many agricultural export products have increased sharply, typically the export price of Vietnamese rice is currently among the highest in the world . For the same type, in the past, Thai rice often had a higher price than Vietnamese rice, but this year it is the opposite. In addition, the export prices of coffee, vegetables, tea, etc. have also increased significantly,” said Mr. Phuong.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development also estimates that the export value of the entire agricultural sector in 2024 is forecast to reach 60 – 61 billion USD. This is a record, a new milestone, a significant increase compared to the figure of more than 53 billion USD achieved in 2023. In particular, vegetables, rice, seafood, coffee… are the sectors with strong growth.
Responding to Thanh Nien , Mr. Dang Phuc Nguyen, General Secretary of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association, predicted that this year the fruit and vegetable industry will set a new export record with a value of 7 – 7.2 billion USD. Of which, durian is the fruit that contributes the most, expected to reach 3.2 billion USD. In addition, the export value of bananas recorded a growth of more than 24%, mangoes increased by 40%, jackfruit increased by 25%…
“Previously, China bought the most durian from Thailand and the most bananas from the Philippines, but now Vietnamese goods have grown strongly. Vietnam has replaced the Philippines to become the largest banana supplier to China. In addition to durian and banana, Vietnam is now a large source of jackfruit for the Chinese market,” Mr. Nguyen informed.
Take advantage of market opportunities
Overall, Vietnam’s import-export activities will go through 2024 relatively smoothly. Recently, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh emphasized that by the end of November, the total import-export turnover was estimated at about 715 billion USD, an increase of 15.3%; trade surplus was over 23 billion USD. For the whole year, the import-export turnover is estimated at 807.7 billion USD, the highest ever.
Considering that the first time import-export reached the milestone of over 800 billion USD is a “very encouraging and positive” result, Mr. Le Quoc Phuong further analyzed that this year, although the import rate increased more strongly than export, Vietnam still had a trade surplus, estimated at about 25 – 27 billion USD. In the import structure, import of production materials accounts for about 94%, the rest is imported consumer goods. The increase in imports shows that businesses are boosting imports to prepare for production and export plans for the remaining time of 2024 and next year.
Recognizing the reasons that helped Vietnam reap “sweet fruits” in import and export this year, Ms. Nguyen Minh Thao, Head of the Department of Business Environment and Competitiveness (Central Institute for Economic Management Research), said that first of all, it was due to the recovery of the world economy.
“Exports must first depend on the demand of the world market. Only when there is demand can exports develop. In addition, some countries whose export products compete with Vietnam’s are facing crises, such as Bangladesh with textiles. They are in crisis, so some customers are looking to other markets for replacement and Vietnamese textile enterprises have opportunities. In addition, the domestic economy is also recovering, helping enterprises increase their internal motivation to improve better,” said Ms. Thao.
Similarly, according to Mr. Phuong, in 2024, the world economy will be more prosperous than in 2023. In particular, this year inflation in many major economies tends to decrease, causing world demand to increase. This is the most important reason for Vietnam’s exports to achieve positive results. The expert also emphasized the factor that both foreign direct investment (FDI) enterprises and domestic enterprises have been well prepared even in difficult times to be ready to welcome opportunities; when world demand increases again this year, enterprises immediately promote exports. At the same time, the Government and ministries and branches have created favorable conditions for enterprises to recover, overcome, and have good production and business results, including import and export…
Promoting processing and building Vietnamese agricultural product brands
Affirming that for many years, Vietnam has been in a situation where export turnover is high but added value is not commensurate, Mr. Phuong said that “we must continue to try”.
To gradually change the situation, agricultural products must step up processing and brand building. Industrial products must shift from processing and assembling to undertaking stages with higher added value. In addition, Vietnam also needs to strongly shift to industries that are global trends such as semiconductors. “Vietnam is trying, but whether or not it will be successful depends largely on determination, effort, and agility to be able to participate in the global supply chain,” Mr. Phuong emphasized.