Talking to TBTCVN reporters, economic expert – Dr. Nguyen Minh Phong said that in order to achieve this year’s growth target and create momentum for the following years, it is necessary to focus strongly on encouraging innovation in the private sector, continue to increase social “demand”…, at the same time, proactively do a good job of researching and forecasting the economic situation.
PV: In the third quarter of 2024, Vietnam’s economy achieved high growth. How do you evaluate the economic situation over the past 9 months?
Dr. Nguyen Minh Phong: According to the results just announced by the General Statistics Office, in the first 9 months of 2024, GDP increased by 6.82%, which can be said to be a very impressive and positive economic growth result; we are following the roadmap and goals set by the National Assembly, and may even exceed the plan set at the beginning of the year. In particular, all three sectors of agriculture, industry and services have grown well; the economic structure continues to shift positively. The macro economy is stable, inflation is under control; energy security, food security, and the balance of labor supply and demand are ensured.
At the same time, import and export were also very good, in which, export continued to increase strongly, trade surplus was large, contributing to ensuring the balance of payments. Export turnover increased by 15.4%; import increased by 17.3%; trade surplus was estimated at 20.8 billion USD. Thus, in total trade balance, for the first time, Vietnam had a real trade surplus in both total import and export of goods and services.
FDI attraction grew both in terms of new and implemented aspects. Specifically, FDI attraction in the first 9 months reached 24.78 billion USD, up 11.6%; realized FDI capital reached 17.3 billion USD, up 8.9% and the highest in many years; service and tourism sectors recovered impressively. The number of international visitors in the first 9 months reached over 12.7 million, up 43%.
In addition, the budget revenue situation continued to improve significantly. Total state budget revenue in the first 9 months reached 85.1% of the annual estimate, up 17.9% over the same period, while 116.4 trillion VND in taxes, fees, charges, and land rents were exempted, reduced, and extended; other macro balances were basically maintained; business development continued to trend positively, with 183,000 newly established and resuming operations in the first 9 months…
However, there are still pressures related to inflation, taking advantage of opportunities of the business community, especially the impacts of the damage after the recent storms and floods, as well as some prolonged difficulties of the real estate market and the financial market. I think, in general, this is a bright picture and we are likely to achieve the growth target set for the whole year and possibly even higher.
PV: According to the General Statistics Office, the total added value of the industrial sector in the first 9 months of 2024 is estimated to increase by 8.3% over the same period. In particular, the processing and manufacturing industry increased by 9.7%, contributing 2.4% to the total added value of the entire economy. In your opinion, is this a positive bright spot in the context of the economy facing many difficulties and challenges?
Dr. Nguyen Minh Phong: This is a very positive bright spot, because industry has always been the main industry, playing the role of the main driving force of the economy and the strength of the country. There was a period when industry grew very slowly and this role almost faded.
The figures for the past 9 months have shown that the industrial sector has grown quite well. In particular, the processing and manufacturing industry in the third quarter of this year continued its positive growth momentum from the second quarter of 2024, continuing to play a key role in the country’s economic growth. The manufacturing and processing industry production index in the third quarter of 2024 increased by 6% compared to the previous quarter and increased by 11.9% compared to the same period last year, the quarter with the highest growth rate in the past 6 years, higher than the growth rate in 2019, the year before the Covid-19 pandemic. It can be said that the first 9 months of this year have affirmed the role of the industrial sector more clearly.
PV: In order for Vietnam to achieve its growth target this year and create momentum for next year, what growth drivers of the economy need to be focused on in the coming time, sir?
Dr. Nguyen Minh Phong: International organizations as well as the Government have identified and pointed out the challenges that the economy needs to overcome in 2024. To achieve this year’s growth target and continue the growth momentum for the coming years, I think that in the immediate future, we should focus most strongly on encouraging innovation in the private sector and enhancing the responsibility of the State sector, while creating favorable conditions for foreign enterprises, especially high-tech enterprises.
Along with that, continue to reduce financial obligations for businesses and people to increase social aggregate demand; continue to pave the way for integration and make good use of new generation FTAs, as well as participate in the global supply chain in areas where we have advantages.
In addition, continue to closely monitor, evaluate and forecast the world and domestic economic situation to promptly respond to risks and take advantage of opportunities from the trend of foreign investment shift; have a roadmap to adjust prices of goods and services managed by the State to control inflation.
In particular, it is necessary to provide timely support to businesses facing difficulties in recent storms and floods, contributing to promoting stable business development and contributing to growth.
PV: Thank you!