The International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts that by 2025, the number of air passengers will exceed 5 billion for the first time and the industry’s revenue will exceed 1,000 billion USD.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasts industry revenues to exceed $1 trillion by 2025 and passenger numbers to hit a record, despite what CEO Willie Walsh called “unacceptable” difficulties in securing new aircraft.

Airlines around the world have been hit by problems at two aircraft manufacturers, Boeing and Airbus, that have led to delays in aircraft deliveries. Without new, more efficient planes, airlines say they cannot cut fuel costs while flying more passengers.

“We will have to increase the pressure to force key suppliers to act more efficiently,” said IATA chief Mr Walsh.

Despite these issues, IATA expects the airline industry to generate net profits of $36.6 billion in 2025, up from an expected net profit of $31.5 billion in 2024, with a record 5.2 billion passengers expected to fly.

Lower oil prices and fuel costs are key drivers of the airline industry’s outlook. IATA forecasts average jet fuel costs of $87 per barrel next year, down from $99 in 2024.

The airline industry lost $140 billion in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but has recovered thanks to strong travel demand, experts say. Jet fuel prices will also fall.

Mr. Walsh is optimistic about the second term of US President-elect Donald Trump and said that Mr. Trump’s actions in his first term have boosted the growth of the industry. 

However, instability related to conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine could also pose risks to the industry. IATA predicts that the average amount a passenger will pay to fly a mile will fall by 3.4% by 2025 compared to 2024.